Elections. Maps to analyze the province of Buenos Aires

The political crisis and ongoing representation, continues to be developed in the heat of deterioration of the economic situation.

The next elections in the province of Buenos Aires will be part of a dispute for the militancy on the left. From the daily left development team, we made these exclusive maps and this analysis as a contribution to develop a militant campaign in each neighborhood, school or workplace.

For this we assemble new maps throughout the province by circuit, the highest possible level of detail for a territorial analysis. We take the results of the latest elections: 2017-Legislativa, 2019-President, 2021-Legislativa, 2023-President.

Clearly, in the presidential elections the strong polarization makes the strength of the left be reduced in relation to the legislative, what we could call “hard vote.” When making a comparison it is important to compare elections of the same type, in this case we compare the latest two presidential elections 2019/2023, for the National Deputy category.

The data is based on the official results, which can be consulted here in greater detail (the circuits that have no data, may be due to outdated, circuits variations between choice or lack of official results). In this note we show the data of Greater Buenos Aires and La Plata, but those of the entire province can be consulted in the Database Observatory.

The crisis of the ruling

In 2023, we know that the vote to Milei was socially transversal, and that he took votes from both macrismo and Peronism. On the other hand, unification with macrismo, is likely to add most of the votes of this sector, but it is also possible that there are sectors (more popular or traditionally radical) that do not want to give the vote to the government.

The increase in votes of macrismo, can also be affected by setbacks, particularly popular sectors that begin to make an experience with the current government. It remains to be seen to what extent this loss is expressed: some votes could return to Peronism, go to other alternatives (center or left) or express themselves as an increase in absenteeism, as could be seen in the last CABA elections. But as a whole, what is expressed is the government’s weakness to carry out the famous “structural reforms” that great entrepreneurs ask for and in particular American imperialism.

In the following map, the different levels of setback of together for the change between the 2019 presidentials and the presidential presidentials of 2023, for the National Deputies category, can be observed at the circuit level.

The crisis of Peronism

On the other hand we have Peronism, which ended with a crisis in closing lists (cutting of light through). Where the Kicillof and Massa sector (new songs) prevailed, with strong differences between sectors linked to Cristina and Recrois. The last 2023 elections, after the government of Alberto Fernández, logically show a strong setback.

In the following map you can see the loss of votes of Peronism in the presidential 2023, despite the strong polarization with the ultra right of Milei.

Let us also remember that if the crisis was not greater in 2023, it was also because in the passage of 2023 the Sector of Recrois held within Peronism a sector of almost 10%, with a ballot differentiated only for president, maintaining the same as deputies. That is, the Peronist vote has been having a crisis of both the vote that already lost in 2023, and with the sector that remained inside supporting Grabois and Cristina. It will be to be seen, if Peronism manages to rebuild and to what extent or if these sectors seek to express themselves by other ways.

In this map, the distribution of votes of the recordois list in the 2019 Paso (President category, because they shared legislative ballot) is shown. They expressed part of a discontent that could be contained within Peronism.

What is the danger that the American ambassador sees?

The American ambassador Lamelas, in addition to another sample of imperialist interference endorsing the proscription of Cristina, wants to erase even the slightest questioning of the IMF regime. Not for nothing, he called to be careful with the movements in progress, that “they are even much more to the left than the Peronist movement.”

Some opinion studies seek to minimize left and the electoral regime cuts the campaign spaces, an issue that particularly affects forces without friends. But it is the left that has been at the head of the resistance against the ongoing adjustment. It is a militant left, together with workers, women and youth, which can emerge as an alternative in each neighborhood, each place of study and work. A left that questions the entire adjustment plan and the regime of the whole IMF. Maybe that is the danger that the American ambassador sees.

In this map, the growth of the “hard vote” of the left can be visualized, that is to say of the vote in presidential elections, with a very strong polarization.

Recall that in the last legislative elections of 2021, the left was about 10% in the main sections of the province’s conurbano in the following graph of the legislative of 2021.