In contrast to the acceleration of the exchange rate in the last week of July, the American currency began August in Baja. This Monday, the Dollar Banco Nación closed to $ 1,335, going back $ 45 in just ten days, from $ 1,380. After raising 14% in July, the photo of the first days of August shows a drop in the dollar in all its variants.
It was not magic: Milei and Caputo were again rescued by the background. The approval of the first revision of the expanded service (SAF) and the entry of US $ 2,000 million dollars helped to improve the climate in the “markets.” Although doubts about the sustainability of the opening model based on a “cheap” dollar to contain inflation, indebtedness and carry trace persist, the economic team gained some oxygen on the exchange front.
Between April and August, the IMF disbursed 70% of the new loan, about $ 14,000 million. However, by other windows the departure of dollars does not stop: only for tourism, in the first half of the year the deficit accumulated US $ 5,360 million (BCRA). According to a report from the Central Center, in the first month and a half without stock the formation of external assets of the non -financial private sector was equivalent to 44% of the amount entered into the first IMF disbursement.
According to the latest data from the June exchange balance (BCRA), they left U $ S 4,051 million in concept of “Net purchase of tickets and foreign currency Category that, strikingly, replaced the formation of external assets. In just two and a half months, the capital escape and purchase of currencies reached 66% of the background disbursements.
Without the possibility of accessing external financing, mainly because the country risk remains at high levels (730 points), The reduction of US $ 5,000 million in the accumulation goals of net reserves by the end of 2025, is a clear endorsement to the government by imperialism. The IMF report indicates that at the time of the first review, the Net International Reserves (RIN) registered a negative value for US $ 4.7 billion, breaking the set scheduled at US $ 1,100 million. Under the new scheme of accumulation of reservations by the end of the year they must reach a negative value of US $ 2.6 billion, compared to the US $ 2.4 billion of the original goal. Despite this flexibility in reservations, the 1816 consultant estimated that the Government must increase international assets by US $ 3,500 million to December, and that a way to do is the daily purchase of dollars within the flotation band.
The fund also extended the period of revisions – from quarterly to semiannual – being the next one in February 2026. For the LCG consultant these modifications are not necessarily “a good signal. Not even three months of the program passed and they already failed to comply”. A first reading of this IMF boost is that it implies a clear political support to Milei in electoral year, ensuring that there are no new reviews before October.
The same recipes: Supercases and an economy that cools
“If we want inflation to continue going down, if we want poverty to continue in withdrawal, if we want income to increase and that the standard of living of the Argentines improve, then, we cannot repeat the same recipes that led us to failure and pretend that magically this time will work,” said the president in the national chain of Friday. The defensive tone of his speech is explained in the parliamentary defeat suffered last week, when in deputies 12 projects contrary to the fiscal chain of the government were approved. As the average sanction to increases to retirees, the university budget, the emergency in disability, among others.
The president recommended not returning to the past, not repeating old recipes but the economic measures that apply are not so different from those seen under the menemism or the alliance government and the zero deficit law. A model based on exchange backwardness to maintain inflation at low levels, opening, with growing external indebtedness and permanent tax adjustment. It also repeats figurines that passed through different administrations, such as Luis Caputo and Federico Sturzenegger, among many others. The experience already showed that these recipes do not end well for social majorities.
The main winners of this economic direction are those related to banking and financial speculation. Capitalized interests went from 2.6% of GDP in 2024 to 4.8% of GDP in 2025, according to the Office of Presidency of Congress (OPC). This debt growth in pesos is worrying, and maintains volatility in the face of each maturity renewal. In the last tender, Caputo and Bausili validated very high interest rates to divert the pressure on the dollar and guarantee an income to the speculators. Now the JP Morgan considers that with the last increases of the dollar and the different measures, it is advisable to get on the bicycle.
After more than a year of management, the consequences of contractive policies and the fall of consumption – product of the loss of purchasing power – began to feel in factories and shops. The dissolution of the SME Secretariat, after the resignation of Marcos Ayerra, symbolizes the lack of priority towards the local industry. In June, the manufacturing production index published by INDEC registered a monthly drop of 1.2%, marking a change in activity. The new rise in interest rates could deepen this cooling, making credit for SMEs and aggravating unemployment levels.
The cases of layoffs in the industry and in Molinos Río de la Plata, Secco, Georgalos, or in the Petrochemistry Río Tercero, are registered in this context. Also in the dairy industry there is threat of layoffs and bankruptcy as in Sancor and Verónica. Within trade, it is food and restaurants places that suffer the impact due to the drop in the power to buy income. From the employers take advantage of the situation to download the cost of the crisis over their workers.
They are IMF’s policies
The fund enabled a “waiver” and other facilities but in return demanded to advance in structural reforms, such as tax and labor. Taking concrete steps in this regard would be a leap at the level of attack on workers, increasing labor conflict and social discomfort. Milei has not managed to impose a privatizing wave, although he has shown a great predisposition in raffle all strategic assets.
The noise on the economic direction is maintained, different economists believe that after the elections there will be a readjustment in the program with the IMF. For Martín Kalos, director of the consultant Epyca, “what some can take as a piety mantle by the IMF, is a mantle of doubts.” The economist pointed out that a current government problem is the one that still cannot be discussed of a medium -term stabilization and the difficulty of accumulating reserves increases can generate problems.
While the zero deficit remains the computer axis of the economic plan, the increase in prices after the rise in the dollar already reached the gondolas. This Wednesday the inflation data of the month of July will be known, the CABA data advanced the upward trend with 2.5 %. Although service weights are different, August remarks were between 3 and 9 % in essential products. Arcor, Mondelez, Unilever, Mastellone; Danone, Agd and Cañuelas are some of the companies that have already applied them, as well as the automakers. With the danger of a rise in prices that increases the contradictions of the economic model, the president seeks to keep the chainsaw in public spending.
Milei’s only priority is to meet the requirement of the IMF, and generate businesses for investment funds and friends businessmen. The attack on retirement, on education and health, is part of these submission policies that the fund imposes on the country through external debt. When the president says that “there is no money” this plan is actually defending, as the Silver Left sustains but this government chooses to benefit the patronage of the field and financial speculation. The non -payment of the odious debt is the only way to end this looting of the wealth generated in the country, and of our strategic resources.
Source: www.laizquierdadiario.com
