Trump opens war against Lula and imposes a 50% rate on Brazil

United States President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday the imposition of a 50% rate on Brazilian products. The measure comes into force on August 1 and was officially communicated by the US government.

In addition to the economic decision, Trump sent a letter to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), in which he comments on the situation of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), currently a defendant in the Supreme Court (STF) in the investigation that investigates the attempted coup after the 2022 elections.

In the correspondence, Trump criticized the conduct of the court case against Bolsonaro. “The way Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a highly respected leader around the world during his term, including the United States, is an international shame,” wrote the White House chief.

The letter was sent amid the announcement of the new fare, which reaches Brazilian products not yet detailed by the US Department of Commerce. The measure represents a climbing in commercial tensions between the two countries, which had been dialogue about tariff barriers and market access in recent months.

Conditions for tariff review

In the same document, Trump included a direct mention of the possibility of revision of the new rate, provided that the Brazilian government changes its trade policy. “If you want to open your commercial markets, so far closed, to the United States and eliminate their fares, non-tariff policies and commercial barriers, we may, perhaps, consider an adjustment in this letter,” the US president said.

The statement was interpreted by analysts as an attempt to condition the removal of the fare from commercial concessions by Brazil. To date, the Planalto Palace has not officially spoken out about the content of the letter or the new rate announced.

Impact on bilateral relationship

The measure occurs at a time of transition in trade relations between Brazil and the United States, marked by differences in international forums and the reevaluation of bilateral agreements. The imposition of the tariff may affect strategic sectors of Brazilian trade, depending on the list of products included, which should be published in the coming days.

Behind the scenes, interlocutors of the Brazilian government evaluate that Trump’s letter was elaborated with political tone and may aim to strengthen Bolsonaro’s image among international allies amidst STF investigations.

Bolsonaro currently responds to accusations linked to the attempted annulment of the 2022 elections and the elaboration of a draft decree for military intervention. The inquiry is conducted by Minister Alexandre de Moraes and also involves former ministers and military linked to the former president.

International repercussion

The United States decision to apply the rate generated immediate reaction from foreign trade entities. The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) said it is awaiting more details about the affected products to evaluate the sectoral impacts. Already experts in international relations indicate that the episode could cause a reassessment of Brazilian strategies in relation to the United States and reinforce the search for new trade agreements with other blocks, such as European Union, China and Mercosur.

In the United States, the fare announcement was accompanied by Trump’s speeches about his US industry protection policy. The measure is similar to others already adopted against business partners such as China, Mexico and Canada, during the Republican’s first term. The US government argues that tariffs are legitimate tools for correcting commercial imbalances and protecting domestic jobs.

Political scenario

The reference to Jair Bolsonaro in an official US presidency document was received carefully in the Brazilian diplomatic environment. Itamaraty sources reported that the content of the letter will be analyzed before any public demonstration, and that the relationship with the United States will continue to be treated in diplomatic channels.

Trump’s letter also occurs in a context of electoral pre-campaign in the United States. Candidate for reelection, the US President has adopted critical tone regarding left-aligned governments and has been reinforcing his protectionist agenda in speeches to the conservative electorate.

In Brazil, possible external interference in legal proceedings will be evaluated by political and legal sectors. The Supreme Court has not spoken out about the letter so far.

Next developments

The Brazilian government is awaiting official disclosure of the list of products affected by the 50% fare to evaluate response measures. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services must start internal consultations to define the next steps.

The Planalto Palace also follows the progress of the inquiry involving Bolsonaro in the Supreme, without officially commenting on the content of the letter sent by Trump.

The tariff issue is expected to be dealt with in the upcoming multilateral trade forums and diplomatic channels between the two countries. Until then, negotiations are still ongoing behind the scenes, while the economic and political effects of the decision begin to be measured.