Analysis: Lula and Macron – a lot of friendship, little result

Lula’s trip to France yielded good photos alongside Macron. But there are no signs that the friendly climate will undo the resistance of the European leader to the Mercosur-UE agreement.

“President Macron, open your heart to Brazil, and let’s make the European Union-Mercosul agreement so we can take this opportunity.” It was with these words that the president of Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), appealed to his French homologist while traveling to Paris. “The agreement is the best response our regions can give before the scenario of uncertainty created by the return of unilateralism and tariff protectionism,” he said.

For Lula, it would be very important to approve the agreement now, while Brazil is still in the Mercosur rotary presidency, Guilherme Casarões, a political scientist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation. The petista hoped that the trip could help in this process. “Approving the agreement would be a highlight in its third term as president of Brazil.”

In conversation with DW, Casarões points out that, in a context of low popularity of the government, the international agenda has gained even more importance to Lula, who wants to leave a great legacy in his third term.

But French President Emmanuel Macron still shows a doubt about the agreement as it is today, and wants some additional guarantees.

“There is a competition between France and Brazil in the area of ​​agriculture. France is a major producer of dairy and meat,” recalls Casarões. And as the French agribusiness lobby is strong, Macron fears displeasing the sector.

Other European countries also have caveats with the South American agribusiness, such as Ireland.

Lula has made a praiseworthy effort to defend the deal, but it does not seem to have made any advances, former minister and former manner Rubens Ricupero evaluates.

According to the diplomat, Macron has nothing to gain from the treaty, because of the resistance of the French farmers. “I don’t see any French government that will risk the prestige with such an agreement,” he tells DW.

For Ricupero, the current text of the agreement does not even deserve the name of free trade, as it did not make expressive concessions to agricultural products in South America.

And Macron’s position was strengthened with the recent election of a conservative president in Poland that is contrary to the agreement. “I see the future of the agreement as doubtful,” summarizes Ricupero.

Another additional obstacle to the agreement is that the EU is negotiating at the same time with Australia. These negotiations have been marked by the same problems, such as quotas for the meat trade.

French agribusiness fears competition with Mercosur products | Bertrand Guay/AFP

MERCOSUR-UE Agreement no longer excites agro brazilian

On the South American side there have been many concessions during the more than twenty years of negotiations, watches mansions. Now Mercosur says he is fully prepared to approve the agreement as he is, “because the text is beneficial to South America, even more than for the European Union,” says the political scientist. “For South America it is a possibility of consolidating a little explored market – precisely the European market – as it has always been very protected from South America’s agricultural products.”

Lula also needs to take advantage of Argentina’s current moment, the most important partner within Mercosur. Argentine President Javier Milei has already stated that he has no interest in maintaining the block. But it seems that, for now, there is the same agenda as Lula: closing the deal. While Lula was with Macron in France, Milei went to Italy, where he met Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. One of the points on the agenda was the deal with Mercosur.

Although he has always been critical of multilateral agreement, Milei has recently signaled support for treaty approval. An Italian government “yes” is necessary for the EU to get enough votes to get the agreement off the paper. If, besides France, Italy also reject the text, there will be not enough majority.

For Ricupero, Lula seeks the deal with the EU as a personal victory. He states that there is little interest in Brazil in the agreement, and therefore little pressure to really close it, since, in the evaluation of the diplomat, the text is more favorable to the European industry than to the South American agribusiness, which already exports everything that can to China.

“Bromance” between Lula and Macron

Lula and Macron built the image of a strong personal friendship, with honeymoon scenes next to an Eiffel tower enlightened in green and yellow. Both sides need a positive image and create a new alignment axis, evaluates houses. Since at this moment there is a natural distance from Donald Trump’s government in the US, Brazil tries to get closer to Europe. And Europeans have been demonstrating, since Trump’s election, that they have great interest in strengthening relations with Latin America.

In addition, Lula and Macron have a large agenda in common, says mansions. Both are committed to fighting the far right, which in both countries is in the becknowledgment. And the two countries see themselves as global leaders in environmental protection, a agenda that began with Rio-92, while the 2015 Paris Agreement currently governs the environmental agenda. In addition, France holds, through French Guiana, a part of the Amazon rainforest, which makes it a natural partner in protecting the biome.

At the same time there is a common military agenda, as France has been, for over 15 years, Brazil’s main partner for the development of nuclear submarines. Brazil needs this naval technology to patrol the North Coast, where it intends to explore oil and gas on the equatorial margin.

No wonder Lula participates in Nice of the United Nations Conference on Oceans, an event that begins this Monday (06/09). It will be a time to discuss the exploitation of natural resources, given that the Brazilian equatorial margin borders the French Guiana, remembers mansions.

Lula has become one of the great leaders of the global southern, which makes him attractive to a part of the French audience, Ricupero evaluates. “He represents, in the French eyes, more than he represents here in Brazil, where he is already a little worn out. There he still has a new character.”

This makes Lula a symbolic asset for Macron and French diplomacy – especially now that Brazil has assumed the rotary presidency of BRICS. Thus, Macron can show that he has a direct dialogue with the global south.

Originally published by DW on 08/06/2025

By Thomas Milz