Gokkers who are active on platforms such as polymarkets and Kalshi are suddenly negative about the American economy. At the moment, people on both platforms predict that the economy of the United States shrunk during the first quarter of 2025.
Since 2022 there had been positive economic growth, and a reversal could indicate the start of a recession.
Pessimistic prospects for America
This pessimistic view also marks an important change for gambling markets, because until recently they counted on economic growth for the first quarter of 2025.
In less than 24 hours, the forecast on Kalshi dived from 0.5% to the current -0.4%. At the same time, a 70% chance of economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 is seen on polymarket, while there were still positive there on 28 April.
The outcome of these bets depends on data published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis today, in the form of the first official measurement of economic growth for Q1 2025.
This gives us clear insight into the impact of Trump’s trade policy on the US economy for the first time.
Bitcoin in anticipation
Based on this information, it is not strange that Bitcoin is somewhat awaiting, and does not seem to get any further than the current $ 95,000.
At the moment there is too much resistance, which the bulls with this uncertainty will probably not overcome. For that reason, waiting for more clarity about the health of the economy, which we will get later today.
In the larger picture, however, there seems to be little going on for Bitcoin. The digital currency is currently copying the price campaign of Mid-2021, and seems to be starting the second outbreak of this cycle.
If it is indeed a copy of 2021, Bitcoin has to rise for a while before a new series of misery starts.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/gokmarkten-zien-begin-van-amerikaanse-recessie-door-handelsspanningen/
