Even with tariffs, India breaks historical record with exports of $ 821 billion

With commercial war between the US and China, India positions himself as an alternative in global chains, while negotiating agreements with USA and EU

India registered on Tuesday (15) records of more than US $ 821 billion in 2024-25, driven by healthy shipments of goods and robust exports of services, despite global contrary winds. Government optimism about this year’s perspectives depends on ambitious bilateral free trade agreements with at least two countries: the US and the European Union. The first, in particular, is crucial as it will help India dodge the reciprocal fare imposed by the US.

President Donald Trump announced the 26% rate on India, but suspended all reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. The current incremental rate on Indian products exported to the US is 10%.

By announcing provisional commercial data for March and full year of 2024-25, Sunil Barthwal Secretary of Commerce said March’s service data is a “conservative” estimate and India real exports in the 2025 fiscal year may exceed US $ 821 billion.

According to the data, total exports of India (goods and combined services) by 2024-25 were US $ 820.93 billion, compared to US $ 778.13 billion in 2023-24, recording a growth of 5.5%.

Total imports in the 2025 fiscal year increased by 6.85%to US $ 915.19 billion, compared to US $ 856.52 billion in the 2024 fiscal year, leading to a higher commercial deficit. The commercial deficit increased from US $ 78.39 billion by 2023-24 to US $ 94.26 billion by 2024-25, an increase of more than 20%.

The data showed that the total exports of India were led by services in the 2025 fiscal year, with the growth of shipments of goods practically stable at US $ 437.42 billion, compared to US $ 437.07 billion in the fiscal year of 2024. Imports of goods, however, increased 6.2%, to US $ 720.24 billion, against US $ 720.24 billion, against US $ 678.21 billion in the fiscal year of 2024.

The services were the highlight, with exports exceeding imports. India exported services worth US $ 383.51 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, compared to US $ 341.06 in the 2024 fiscal year, an increase of 12.45%. Imports, on the other hand, showed an annualized increase of 9.33%, from US $ 178.31 billion in the fiscal year from 2024 to US $ 194.95 billion in the fiscal year of 2025.

Authorities of the Ministry of Commerce stated that trade in March this year remained virtually unchanged. While the growth of exports of goods in March remained practically stable (it increased 0.67% on an annualized base), reaching US $ 41.97 billion, imports increased by 11.36%, reaching US $ 63.51 billion in the month. The commercial deficit in March was $ 21.54 billion, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce released on Tuesday.

The main drivers of growth in goods exports included engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, clothing and agricultural commodities such as rice, cotton, coffee, spices, tea and tobacco. “India has been doing extremely well,” Barthwal said, citing the government’s strategy of focusing specifically in 20 countries, six commodity sectors and six services sectors, as well as “continuous interactions” with interested parties, export promotion (EPCs), Indian missions abroad and sectoral ministries.

Speaking of the reciprocal tariffs of the US government, which came into force in April, he said they represent “challenges and opportunities” to India, as leaders in both countries (Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump) decided to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) “mutually beneficial”. The goal is to finish the first installment of BTA until September 2025, he said. An authority that requested anonymity added that “negotiations between India and the US may also be completed before the deadline, as both parties are intensely engaged.”

Certainly, with the US charging a 145% tariff over China, and Beijing returning with a 125% tariff on US products, the world is facing a possible trade war between its two largest economies, although countries such as India can also benefit from opportunities to replace China in global supply chains.

The authority added that it is also likely that India and the EU could enter into an early harvest agreement and that a more comprehensive free trade agreement be negotiated later, as was the case with the Australia TLC in 2022. An EHS (EHS) scheme (EHS) usually precedes a comprehensive TLC between two partners and helps to generate confidence. India is also in the process of finalizing a complete TLC with the UK.

Aditi Nayar, chief economist and ICRA’s head of research and dissemination, said: “Goods export data denied the expectations of an early shipment of shipments before the proposed tariffs, contributing to a larger than expected deficit.”

“Total exports of India grew healthy 5.5% in the 2024-25 fiscal year, reflecting the resilience of the exporting sector amid growing global geopolitical tensions and commercial interruptions,” said Fieo President SC Ralhan. He, however, called for strategic support to support the impetus of exports amid the ongoing tariff war.

With information from Hindustan*