In July, the AEX price reached an all-time high of approximately 950 points. It has been a while since the bulls were in control of Dutch pride on the world markets. After a sharp correction to 840 points in August, the index is back to 910 points, but there has been no real breakthrough yet.
Important week for the AEX
This week could be an important week for the AEX. On Wednesday we will see the minutes of the last interest rate meeting of the US central bank.
These minutes will tell us more about the US central bank’s interest rate policy for the coming months, but also about the degree of disagreement within the central bank about the latest interest rate decision.
After all, it has probably not escaped your notice that the US central bank opted for a fairly significant interest rate cut of 0.50% on September 18. While many economists had not expected that significant reduction due to the positive economic data.
In addition to the minutes of the interest rate meeting, we will also receive important inflation gauges on Thursday and Friday in the form of the consumer price index (CPI) and the producer price index (PPI) from the United States.
These are now important again, because the strong economy is causing people to fear that we may see a new upturn in inflation.
What does all this mean for the AEX?
For the AEX price, this mainly means that it will be an important period. We must continue to monitor the data closely to be able to draw conclusions. For the time being, the basic scenario seems to be that the US central bank succeeds in the soft landing, which means that inflation falls to the desired 2.0% and the economy does not end up in a recession.
Due to the strong economic data of the past period, the fear of a new wave of inflation has increased somewhat. That could throw a spanner in the works and cause a “no landing” scenario.
That is the scenario in which inflation remains a (minor) problem and the options for the US central bank are limited to further reduce interest rates and provide stimuli to the economy, the financial markets and thus indirectly also to the AEX price.
Source: https://newsbit.nl/aex-koers-opnieuw-in-de-rode-cijfers/
