The street made its voice heard again this October 2 in the mobilization in defense of the public university. The march was massive throughout the country and cities like Rosario or Córdoba (the two most important after Buenos Aires) stood out because they gathered the same number of people (or more) as the first demonstration on April 23.
Although the numerical comparison in itself does not give us much if we want to understand the meaning of the street day, always assuming that it was a massive mobilization. The arithmetic of counting people has to be complemented by the algebra of political dynamics.
The first thing is the context: in April, the Milei Government was barely four months old, there were more expectations (at least among its voters) and the results of its economic roadmap had not yet been experienced in their full magnitude. This was reflected in the survey figures, which today show a very different scenario.
There are some other differences: in April the idea was established that universities could close and that this possibility was close, therefore, the issue seemed more urgent, more imminent. In this last march the emphasis was placed on salaries, which is as essential for the functioning of universities as everything else, but which can be perceived as more mediated by students.
But, in addition, at that time there was still a certain fantasy (especially among the adherents of the Government and that came from the electoral campaign) that considered that many of the things that Milei said he was going to do, finally “when he came to his senses” would not I was going to carry them out, because I said they were crazy or crazy, which was just it. So, many participants in the April march (especially among those who supported the Government) did so with the spirit of “we are going to point out to the Government that it is not here and it will come to its senses.” To a certain extent, the setback of the Government at that time (and the non-continuity of the mobilization process by the official leadership of the university world, allowing salaries to collapse, among other things) made this idea plausible. Now with the veto of the budget increase, Milei showed that he had made a tactical setback, but that he intends to maintain the strategic offensive against everything public and against universities as well.
Finally, it must also be taken into account that throughout this time there were very harsh repressions carried out by Patricia Bullrich and her security forces, including the arrests and transfer of people to federal prisons with unusual accusations (some remained there for months) in the demonstration against the “Bases Law”, but also other repressions that left people who lost an eye or were repeatedly gassed, such as retirees, etc. etc
What does all this reveal to us? That the mobilization of the 2nd was much more “conscious” to put it in some way, it was more clearly in opposition to the Government and with another moral force: with greater awareness that the confrontation can bring political and other consequences and, despite that , it was massive. This means that an eventual difference in “quantity” has been overcome by an enormous distance in the “quality” of the manifestation.
This dynamic was also being reflected in some more qualitative opinion studies, that is, those that investigated not only the “image” or “support” in general, but also the specific measures: the opposition universe was shown to be more homogeneously oppositional. (with more foundation and intensity) and the ruling party was more “gaseous”, more doubtful and those doubts increased with the passage of time and in many cases implied a distancing (hence the drop in the polls). They are changing, this is a hypothesis, the social tectonic plates on which the Government walks with the opponents on the offensive and the “officials” (less and less pro-government) and on the defensive.
We also saw this reflected in the composition of the march: on the one hand, with the presence of other social sectors affected by the Milei adjustment (workers, laid-off people, retirees) very well received by the protesters. And, on the other hand, due to the presence of traditional political leaders who, in one way or another, gave Milei governance throughout this time (whether by action or omission).
Finally, we also perceive the change in the impact that the mobilization is having in the quasi-official blocks of the PRO and the UCR that do not know today if they can guarantee the third of legislators that allows Milei to sustain the veto against the two thirds that can overturn it. (the session would be next Wednesday).
All this demonstrates what we have said many times in this space: the “infallibility” of the Government was more in its speech than in its reality and its strength came from those who guaranteed the approval of the laws or regulated the social conflict.
Now, those who said that “we had to wait for the times of society”, well here they had a new demonstration of “society” (or a considerable part of it, not only in Amba, but throughout the country) . I am referring less to the political leadership (which intends to enter into electoral campaign mode) than to the union, social or student leadership that should take note of the new situation to deal a hard blow to the Government’s plan and initiate an offensive to reverse the grievances. that we suffered during these ten months.
This implies, in an absolutely open tactical battle, the possibility of turning into a veto, risking everything so that the Government suffers a political defeat and that this change that we perceive in the social sphere has a political expression.
Secondly, use that possibility to question the entire plan (in these days, Milei regimented the labor reform, which if affirmed is a tremendous setback in workers’ rights).
For this reason, the central dilemma is the same one that arises every time events such as the university mobilization occur: either the event is used to decompress, to negotiate crumbs, to “improve” or make the Government’s plan more digestible, or it is take as a starting point to defeat him.
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