The political season resumes this September with the PP and PSOE unchanged in their electoral aspirations. Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party has not moved for three months and the socialist, who dropped almost one point in August compared to the previous month, has only recovered one tenth. Below, Vox also remains unchanged while Sumar has not managed to stop its fall and has already been on a downward spiral for six months.
The September barometer, prepared by Simple Lógica for elDiario.es, once again shows the PP as the party with the most votes if general elections were held now. It would obtain 33.5% of the votes, the same figure as in July and June. The Popular Party exhausted the momentum of the opposition to the amnesty law months ago and although they had a few months of falls, they have now stabilised at that figure, which leaves them four tenths above their results in 2023.
The PSOE, for its part, would obtain 30.6% of the votes, one tenth more than a month ago. The socialists, unlike the PP, have experienced a few months of ups and downs that led them to reach 31.6%, then fall and now stabilise. The best news for Pedro Sánchez’s party is that the three-point gap with the PP remains, which at the beginning of the year was seven.
The Socialists, however, are currently below their results in July 2023 (31.7%) and have already spent a year without managing to recover that figure, which kept them close to the PP in the elections and allowed them to continue in government.
Vox remains in third place, a position it has not had to fight for for some time. The far-right party is in the same situation as the PP: three consecutive months with the same estimated vote. In its case, it would obtain 10.5% of the votes, compared to 12.4% in the general elections.
This figure has two interpretations for Santiago Abascal’s party. On the one hand, it is the worst of the legislature, far from its best records. On the other, they have managed to stabilise at 10.5% despite the emergence of Alvise Pérez’s platform, which is competing for the same electorate. According to the Simple Lógica barometer, SALF (Se Acabó la Fiesta) would obtain 3.8% of the votes, one tenth more than a month ago.
Sumar is the party that comes out worst in this survey at the start of the political year. Yolanda Díaz’s platform, badly damaged after the electoral processes of the first half of the year, is unable to stop the loss of votes. It would now obtain 7.4%, three tenths less than a month ago. The figure means that the party has now had six consecutive months of falls and is very far from its figure for 2023, when it obtained 12.3% of the votes and fought with Vox for third place.
Finally, Podemos has risen five tenths, from 2.9% to 3.4%. Although it is not the best figure for Ione Belarra’s party, Podemos has been on the rise for three consecutive months.
The data on vote transfers show the PP as the party that best retains its electorate, with 79.3% of loyal voters, followed by 75% of those who would repeat with the PSOE. Vox, for its part, retains 60.7% of the electorate and sees one in five voters leave with Alvise Pérez. Sumar only keeps 58.2% of those who voted for them in 2023 and loses support in favor of PSOE and Podemos.
The battle between the blocs is once again in favour of the right, which would bring together 47.8% of voters, compared to 41.4% of the left-wing bloc.
Sanchez regains popularity
Despite his party’s electoral expectations being stagnant, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has managed to rise again in popularity after a significant drop in August. He now has a positive rating of 33.8%, more than two points above the figure of a month ago. He is followed by the second vice-president and Minister of Labour, Yolanda Díaz, who is also recovering from the falls of recent months and has a rating of 30.6%.
The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, remains in third place with the same figure as a month ago, 24%, the second worst figure since the 2023 elections. Behind him, Ione Belarra overtakes Santiago Abascal and is placed with a positive rating of 16.6% compared to 15.6% of the leader of Vox.
Source: www.eldiario.es
