Biden x Trump: who leads the polls?

US President Joe Biden held a marginal 2 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Donald Trump in the race to win November’s presidential election following Trump’s historic conviction by a jury on charges of falsifying business records to cover up a bribe payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that ended on Friday.

About 41% of registered voters in the two-day poll, conducted in the hours after Trump’s conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election were held today, while 39% chose former President Trump. About 20% of voters in the survey said they had not chosen a candidate, were leaning toward third-party options or might not vote in the Nov. 5 election.

Biden’s lead was within the poll’s roughly 2 percentage point margin of error of registered voters, many of whom are still undecided with about five months remaining before the Nov. 5 election. A previous Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted May 7-14, showed Trump and Biden tied with 40% support each.

The poll found that 10% of respondents would choose Robert Kennedy Jr., an anti-vaccine activist running as an independent, if he were on the ballot with Trump and Biden. The previous poll showed Kennedy with 13% support.

While national polls provide important signals about Americans’ support for political candidates, only a handful of competitive states typically tip the scales in the U.S. electoral college, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.

Both candidates carry significant liabilities in the first US presidential election in almost 70 years.

On Thursday, Trump became the first US president to be convicted of a crime, either in office or after leaving the White House. Trump has vowed to appeal the verdict and claims the prosecution was politically motivated. He faces sentencing in July and faces potential prison time after a jury found him guilty of 34 charges stemming from a payment to an adult film actress before the 2016 presidential election in exchange for her silence about an alleged sexual encounter she says he had it with Trump.

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed adults across the country, found that one in 10 Republican registered voters said they would not vote for Trump after his conviction.

Trump, 77, also faces three other criminal charges involving allegations that he tried to overturn his 2020 election defeat and that he mishandled sensitive documents after leaving office in 2021, although legal wrangling could prevent these cases from coming to trial. before the November election. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges.

Biden’s liabilities include concerns about his age – 81 – as well as sharp criticism from a portion of his Democratic Party for his support for Israel’s war against Hamas militants. Protests have roiled US universities in recent months, fueling concerns among Democrats that some young voters could turn against Biden.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll included responses from 2,135 registered voters who were interviewed online.